Coffee, a glass of orange juice, toast with a spoonful of sugar. Four of the most ordinary things you'll buy this week are also globally-traded commodities, and their prices have done something strange over the last decade. My take: the tidy phrase "food inflation" is doing a lot of hiding here. Most of the rise is one or two weather-hit crops, not your weekly shop as a whole.
01 · THE BASKET
Each line is one commodity's global price; the thick line is the basket average.
Learn more: global commodity prices (FRED / IMF)
02 · WHO'S TO BLAME
A rising "basket" hides who's actually moving. Split it by item and the climb turns out to be the work of a couple of weather-exposed crops, not a broad surge.
Soft commodities are thin markets: one bad harvest in the wrong place moves the world price.
Learn more: orange juice · coffee (FRED)
03 · THE VERDICT
What the breakfast basket is really telling you.