Where Bitcoin sits in its 4-year cycle: against Power-Law fair value, against its own history (Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle), and through the eyes of the institutions and the crowd. Free public data, refreshed live in your browser.
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The white line is Bitcoin's monthly price, spiralling outward through time. The orange band is the Power-Law channel, the long-term curve Bitcoin has tracked for fourteen years (Santostasi, 2018): solid = floor, dotted = fair value, dashed = the cycle-top band. Hover any point for its price and the model's levels that month. About & embed →
How the market feels, on a 0–100 scale. Historically, extreme fear has marked accumulation windows and extreme greed has marked late-cycle exits. Source: alternative.me.
Curated from CoinDesk, Cointelegraph and Bitcoin Magazine, filtered for the news that moves markets: ETF flows, who's buying, and macro catalysts.
What's coming up that can move price: Federal Reserve decisions (FOMC), CME & Deribit options expiries (often a volatility catalyst), and the next halving.
A year of Bitcoin's price against the Power-Law model (log scale). The dashed line is the model's fair value; the band runs from the historical floor to the cycle-top projection.
Price divided by its 200-day moving average. Below 1, you're paying less than trend, historically a quiet accumulation zone. Above 2.4 has only happened near bull-cycle highs.
A classic cycle-top warning. When the 111-day moving average crosses above twice the 350-day, every Bitcoin cycle top so far has landed within days. Useful as an objective counterweight to the Power-Law oscillator.
How aggressively buyers vs sellers crossed the spread each day (taker volume, BTC). Sustained green is a patient bid; sustained red is forced selling. Source: Binance.
Daily net dollars flowing into US spot Bitcoin ETFs: the cleanest read oninstitutional positioning since launch in January 2024. Source: Farside Investors.
Bitcoin settles into a new block roughly every 10 minutes, found by whichever miner first solves the proof-of-work puzzle. Below: time since the last block, that block's solution (its hash) and the address that collected the reward, plus current fee rates. Source: mempool.space.
Who's really finding the blocks, and how concentrated mining has become. The bar is each pool's share of the last week's blocks; the long tail of smaller pools is grouped as Others. The fewer pools it takes to pass 50%, the more centralised the network is. Source: mempool.space.
Total computing power securing the Bitcoin network, in exahashes per second (1018). Rising hashrate signals miner confidence and a more resilient network. Source: mempool.space.